Wisconsin vs. Illinois: Big Ten Quarterfinal Preview & Prediction
A rematch of two of the top offensive teams in the Big Ten takes place today. Can the shorthanded Badgers upset the fresh Fighting Illini?
The stage is set for a heavyweight rematch in the Windy City. After taking care of business against Washington on Thursday, the No. 5 seed Wisconsin Badgers (23-9, 14-6 B1G) move on to the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals for a high-stakes showdown with the No. 4 seed Illinois Fighting Illini (24-7, 15-5 B1G).
If this game is anything like the regular-season meeting—a 92-90 overtime thriller in Champaign—the United Center is in for a treat. Wisconsin enters as one of the hottest teams in the country, having won four straight, while Illinois arrives fresh off a double-bye and hungry for revenge.
Game Info
When: Friday, March 13, 2026
Time: Approx. 1:30 PM CT (25 minutes after Michigan vs. Ohio State)
Where: United Center (Chicago, IL)
TV: Big Ten Network
Radio: Badger Radio Network
Betting Line: Illinois -9; O/U 155.5
Players to Watch
Wisconsin
Nick Boyd (G, Sr.): Boyd was the catalyst in the first meeting, dropping 25 points and 5 assists. He has been playing at an All-American level lately, and his ability to navigate the Illini’s ball-screen defense will be the key to the Badger offense.
John Blackwell (G, Jr.): Coming off his 34-point performance against Washington, Blackwell will look to stay hot against the Illini. When he and Boyd are both clicking, the Badgers are nearly impossible to stop; Wisconsin is 9-0 this season when both backcourt stars score 20+ points.
Austin Rapp (F, So.): The “Rapp Rule” is still alive and well (11-0 when he scores in double figures). With Nolan Winter’s status still up in the air, Rapp’s ability to stretch the floor and hold his own on the glass is paramount.
Illinois
Kylan Boswell (G, Sr.): Boswell missed the regular-season meeting with a hand injury, making him the ultimate X-factor today. The veteran guard averages 13.3 PPG on the season and provides a defensive edge that was missing in the first matchup.
Keaton Wagler (G, So.): Wagler nearly beat the Badgers single-handedly in February, exploding for a career-high 34 points. Wisconsin cannot afford to let him get comfortable from the perimeter early.
Tomislav Ivisic (C, Jr.): A physical force in the paint. He recorded 19 points and 11 rebounds in the first meeting and will be a massive test for Wisconsin’s interior defense, especially if the Badgers are shorthanded.
Storylines to Watch
1. The Nolan Winter Dilemma
Will he or won’t he? My gut tells me he won’t play today, either. After sitting out Thursday’s game against Washington, the 7-foot center is officially a game-time decision. Head coach Greg Gard noted that while Winter is “trying to be ready,” they are balancing the need for a deep tournament run with his long-term health for the Big Dance. Without him, the Badgers lose their primary rim protector against an Illinois team that excels at attacking the basket.
2. The Rebounding War
Illinois ranks 6th nationally in offensive rebounding, a metric that cost Wisconsin in their recent losses. In the first meeting, the Illini’s second-chance points kept them in the game despite Wisconsin’s hot shooting. If the Badgers want to advance to Saturday, they must limit Illinois to “one-and-done” possessions—a tall task if Austin Rapp and Aleksas Bieliauskas are the only ones patrolling the paint.
3. Three-Point Volatility
The last time these teams met, they combined for a staggering 69 three-point attempts. Wisconsin shot 44% from deep (16-of-36), while Illinois was right behind them at 45% (15-of-33). On the big stage of the United Center, the rims can be notoriously “tight.” Whichever team adjusts their game plan to include more interior scoring if the triples aren’t falling will have the upper hand.
Prediction
Illinois is the fresh team with the double-bye, and they are playing in what will essentially be a home environment in Chicago. Furthermore, the return of Kylan Boswell changes the dynamic of the Illini defense significantly compared to the first meeting.
However, this Wisconsin team has a lot of momentum right now. They’ve proven they can win without Winter, and their ball security (only 9.0 turnovers per game) keeps them in every contest. Expect another classic that comes down to the final minute, but the Illini’s depth and fresh legs might be just enough to edge out the surging Badgers.
Score Prediction: Illinois 83, Wisconsin 75
It means a lot to have you here at The Badger Backer. I’m passionate about digging deep into Wisconsin football and basketball, and your readership makes it all worthwhile. Catch up on previous posts or ensure you don’t miss anything by subscribing below! Let’s keep the Badger conversation going!
Follow me on ‘X’ @christianborman and @thebadgerbacker!