Wisconsin vs. High Point: 2026 NCAA Tournament First-Round Preview & Prediction
John Blackwell and the battle-tested Badgers head to Portland looking to avoid the 5/12 upset against the High Point Panthers.
Welcome back, Badger Backers! The brackets are set, the bubbles have burst, and the No. 5 seed Wisconsin Badgers are heading West to start their hunt for a national title.
But beware of the “Trendy Cinderella.” As usual, the selection committee didn’t do Greg Gard and the Badgers any favors by pairing them with No. 12 seed High Point, a team that has been a darling of the mid-major world all season. This is the classic 5/12 trap, a spot the Badgers have historically struggled in.
Let’s get into the Wisconsin-High Point matchup.
Game Info
When: Thursday, March 19, 2026
Time: 12:50 PM CT
Where: Moda Center (Portland, OR)
TV: TBS
Radio: Badger Radio Network
Betting Line: Wisconsin -9.5; O/U 164.5
Deep Dive: The High Point Panthers
High Point comes into the Big Dance with a staggering 30-4 record and a 14-game winning streak. While the “90 points per game” headline is eye-popping, let’s peel back the curtain on the analytics.
The “Foul Merchant” Offense
High Point doesn’t just score; they live at the charity stripe. They rank 23rd nationally in FTA/FGA. They aren’t looking to beat you with complex sets; they are looking to put your bigs in foul trouble. Even with Nolan Winter’s return, the Badgers cannot afford to play the Panthers’ game.
The Inflation Factor
A lot has been made of their #3 national scoring rank. However, analytics suggest this is slightly “inflated” by a few massive blowouts against D-III opponents early in the year. Against D-I competition, their average drops to a still-impressive 83.5 PPG. They are dangerous, but they haven’t seen a defense with the length and discipline of a Big Ten unit all year.
Players to Watch
Wisconsin
John Blackwell (G, Jr.): After averaging 24.5 PPG in Chicago, Blackwell is no longer a secret. He is the engine. If he can navigate High Point’s ball pressure (they rank 5th in turnover percentage), he’ll have a field day in the mid-range.
Nolan Winter (C, Jr.): After missing the last three games for the Badgers with an injury, Nolan Winter will be back in the starting lineup. He will have a height advantage heading into this game, with the Panthers’ tallest player standing at 6’10”.
Aleksas Bieliauskas (C, So.): Bieliauskas has been a monster on the boards as of late. The Badgers are going to need more of that against High Point to limit any back-breaking threes that come off of offensive rebounds.
High Point
Terry Anderson (F, GS): A 6’6” matchup nightmare averaging 16.0 PPG and 6.0 RPG. He’s a “slasher first” who will test the lateral quickness of Wisconsin’s wings.
Rob Martin (G, Sr.): The floor general. He’s small (5’10”) but lightning-quick, averaging 15.3 PPG and 3.5 APG. Keeping him out of the paint is Priority No. 1.
Cam’Ron Fletcher (F, GS): The former Florida State and Xavier transfer brings high-major athleticism to the Big South. He’s their “X-Factor” on the glass.
Storylines to Watch
1. The Height Disparity
High Point relies on a small rotation. Their primary scoring comes from players 6’6” and under. Even if Nolan Winter is out, Wisconsin starts 6’10” Austin Rapp and 6’10” Aleksas Bieliauskas. If the Badgers can dominate the glass and prevent second-chance points, they take away High Point’s “foul-baiting” opportunities.
2. The 3-Point Variance
Wisconsin lives and dies by the trey (4th in the nation in % of points from 3). High Point’s defense is designed to gamble on steals, which often leaves corner shooters open. If Nick Boyd and John Blackwell find their rhythm early, this could turn into a blowout.
3. Tempo: Fast vs. Controlled
High Point wants a track meet (72.1 pace). While Wisconsin is usually in the same boat, the Panthers have a real shot at the upset if this game is played at an uncontrollably fast pace. If the Badgers can slow the game down a bit, their superior half-court execution will eventually wear the Panthers down.
Will the Badgers survive the 5/12 trap, or will the “Trendy Cinderella” end the season early? Below, I’m breaking down my final score prediction and a look at the “Path to the Sweet 16” if Wisconsin takes care of business in Portland.
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