Wisconsin football vs. Indiana preview: Can the Badgers pull off a monumental upset?
Can the Badgers build off the momentum from their emotional win last week? They have a tall task ahead of them traveling to No. 2 Indiana on Saturday.
Fans rushed the field. The rest of the country learned about the dynamic freshman duo of Mason Posa and Cooper Catalano. Luke Fickell snapped his 10-game losing streak against ranked opponents as the head coach of the Wisconsin football team, getting that monkey off his back. The Carter Smith era has (maybe?) begun.
It was an emotional scene last Saturday evening at Camp Randall Stadium. A team many have given up on, and a coach they hoped would be gone sooner rather than later, had defeated the No. 23 Washington Huskies. Players and coaches alike hugged and congratulated Fickell on the victory, knowing the scrutiny he was under and what
The celebration carried over into the locker room with the team erupting in cheers when the true freshman quarterback ran through the doors.
Pure joy.
Video via Mike Heller
Unfortunately, the Badgers could only enjoy the moment for so long. It was time to get ready for one of the tallest tasks on their schedule this season: the second-ranked Indiana Hoosiers.
Here’s eveything you need to know ahead of the Badgers’ matchup with the Hoosiers.
Game Information
Where: Memorial Stadium - Bloomington, IN
When: 11:00 AM CT
How to watch: Big Ten Network
Stream: BTN
Listen: Badger Radio Network
Weather at kickoff: 66°
Betting Odds
To give you an idea of how the Badgers-Hoosiers matchup is viewed, I have the latest odds from FanDuel and the analytics from ESPN.
FanDuel Odds
According to the FanDuel sportsbook, the Badgers enter the game with Indiana as 29.5-point underdogs (+29.5). The odds that the Badgers cover the 29.5-point spread are -115, meaning you would have to bet $115 to win $100.
The moneyline is where you can bet straight-up whether the Badgers will win or lose, regardless of the score. The Badgers are currently +2400 to win the game outright, meaning you’d win $2,400 if you bet $100. Indiana, on the other hand, is -10000, meaning you’d need to bet $10,000 on the Hoosiers just to win $100.
The next odds that may be of interest are the over/under on the total points scored for the game. Right now, the over/under for the Wisconsin-Middle Tennessee game is set at 43.5 points.
FanDuel also has a plethora of prop bets you can take a look at if you are interested in that.
ESPN Analytics
ESPN.com also provides a matchup predictor, giving each team a percentage chance to win the game.
For the game this morning, ESPN gives the Badgers just a 2.9% chance to win the game.
Gard Your Fickell Analysis & Prediction
If you follow me on X (Twitter), odds are you follow or at least have seen some content from Gard Your Fickell (GYF). GYF does a ton of analytical work during football and basketball season that is super interesting and immediately makes you a smarter and more informed fan. If you don’t already, give him a follow.
Each week, he provides some analytics and a prediction for both teams in the upcoming Wisconsin football matchup. Here is his breakdown for the Badgers’ game this week against Indiana.
GYF has the Hoosiers as over two-touchdown favorites. The biggest thing that stands out to me on the graphic above is the stark difference in ‘talent’ between the two teams. The Badgers have a much more talented roster, according to the GYF metrics, but vastly underperform compared to Indiana.
Indiana has the top offense in college football, and it shows. The Hoosiers have double the explosive play rate that Wisconsin does. The Hoosiers convert almost half of their 3rd and long situations while the Badgers are just 16%.
Matchup History
Historically, the Badgers have dominated theis series. Wisconsin has an all-time record of 40-20-2. The Badgers have won 10 of the last 12 games, but the Hoosiers have come out on top in their last two meetings.
The largest margin of victory for the Badgers came in 2010 when they defeated the Hoosiers, 83-20, at Camp Randall Stadium. In the game, the Badgers amassed 598 total yards, including 338 on the ground.
In their last matchup, in 2023, the Hoosiers entered the game with an 0-5 record in the Big Ten and 2-6 overall. The Badgers were 3-2 in conference and 5-3 overall. The Indiana shocked Wisconsin, beating the visiting Badgers 20-14. Wisconsin had a -2 turnover margin and had eight penalties for 78 yards compared to the Hoosiers’ two penalties for 30 yards.
Wisconsin is looking to turn the tables this year and shock the No. 2 Hoosiers in Bloomington and extend its advantage in the all-time series.
What I’m Looking For & Game Prediction
Can Wisconsin build on its momentum from their big win last week? Can Carter Smith be more effective in the passing game? Can the defense slow down the Indiana offense?
There are a lot of things I’m looking for in this matchup. Do I expect the Badgers, who have struggled mightily on offense all season to keep pace with the best offense in college football?
No, I don’t.
But I want to see some life, some improvement. I want to see the defense fly around. I want to see the offense take some chances and not play so damn conservatively as they have most of the season. I get it, when you are on backup quarterbacks you are limited in what you can do. But at this point in the season where they need to win their final three games that include being on the road against one of the best teams in the country, what do you have to lose?
Go all out, take risks. I would much rather see that than a team playing it safe and conservative. With a whole week to prepare, the staff should hopefully have an offensive plan in place to put Carter Smith in more of an advantageous position than they did last week.
The Badgers are going to field a young team on Saturday. They will make mistakes, but I also think they are going to make some plays. I also think this offense is still so limited with the offensive line (although they have been better as of late) and a true freshman at quarterback. It’s going to be nearly impossible to keep pace with Indiana.
In the end, the Hoosiers are just good, too well-coached, and playing at home. Curt Cignetti is going to run up the score. He has all year. That’s how they’ve climbed all the way up to No. 2 — with convincing wins. While I think the Badgers will show fight and not give up, I have the Hoosiers taking this one by multiple scores.
Wisconsin - 13
Indiana - 38
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