Wisconsin football vs. No. 19 Alabama: Game info, odds & predictions
Can the Badgers play spoiler and upset the No. 19 Alabama Crimson Tide on the road giving Luke Fickell his first statement win at Wisconsin?
After two games, the easy part of the schedule is complete. The Wisconsin football team will get an early test facing the No. 19 Alabama Crimson Tide this morning.
On the surface, this may look like just another game, but there is a lot at stake for both teams leading into this game. Alabama is looking to stay relevant in the College Football Playoff race, while Wisconsin is trying to show they are a program on the rise and making improvements from last season.
You can read more about that in-depth right here:
With the difficult schedule Wisconsin has, Badgers fans know this matchup is a defining moment for the team. A bad loss would show more of the same thing they’ve seen the past few seasons, while a competitive game or a win would change the opinion of a lot of fans.
With all of that in mind, here are all of the game details, betting line, and more on the big game this morning.
Game Information
Where: Bryant-Denny Stadium - Tuscaloosa, AL
When: 11:00 AM CT
How to watch: ABC
Stream: ESPN Plus
Listen: Badger Radio Network
Weather at kickoff: 83° - partly cloudy
Betting Odds
To give you an idea of how the Badgers-Crimson Tide matchup is viewed, I have the latest odds from FanDuel and the analytics from ESPN.
FanDuel Odds
According to the FanDuel sportsbook, the Badgers enter the game with Alabama as 20.5-point underdogs (+20.5). The odds that the Badgers cover the 20.5-point spread are -104, meaning you would have to bet $104 to win $100.
The moneyline is where you can bet straight-up whether the Badgers will win or lose, regardless of the score. The Badgers are currently +1060 to win the game outright, meaning you’d win $1,060 if you bet $100. Alabama, on the other hand, is -2300, meaning you’d need to bet $2,300 on the Crimson Tide to win $100.
The next odds that may be of interest are the over/under on the total points scored for the game. Right now, the over/under for the Wisconsin-Middle Tennessee game is set at 4.5 points. The odds right now are ‘juiced’ for the under at -115. The over is currently set at -105.
FanDuel also has a plethora of prop bets you can take a look at if you are interested in that.
ESPN Analytics
ESPN.com also provides a matchup predictor, giving each team a percentage chance to win the game.
For the game this morning, ESPN gives the Badgers just an 11.1% chance to win the game.
Gard Your Fickell Analysis & Prediction
If you follow me on X (Twitter), odds are you follow or at least have seen some content from Gard Your Fickell (GYF). GYF does a ton of analytical work during football and basketball season that is super interesting and immediately makes you a smarter and more informed fan. If you don’t already, give him a follow.
Each week, he provides some analytics and a prediction for both teams in the upcoming Wisconsin football matchup. Here is his breakdown for the Badgers’ game this week against Alabama.
I think you might be surprised by what you see. GYF has the Badgers narrowly losing the game (essentially a tie), 19.99 to 19.29, favoring the Crimson Tide by just 0.7 points.
The biggest thing I was looking at was Alabama’s rush rate over expectation. They have not been running the ball well this year, and Kalen DeBour mentioned the Badgers’ solid run defense in his press conference this week. The analytics paired with DeBour’s comments give me a little hope that the Badgers could contain their rushing attack.
We’ll see if Wisconsin’s upgraded pass rush can get home and make things difficult on Ty Simpson, who is in his first season as a starting quarterback. If they can do that, things could get interesting in Tuscaloosa on Saturday.
Matchup History
Wisconsin and Alabama played each other just last season at Camp Randall Stadium, a game many Badgers fans would like to forget. The Crimson Tide dominated the Badgers all throughout the game en route to a 42-10 pounding in Madison.
All-time, the Badgers and Crimson Tide have met three times. The Tide owns the series record, 2-1, defeating the Badgers in 2015 and 2024. Wisconsin defeated Alabama in 1928, winning the game 15-0.
Wisconsin will look to tie the series 2-2 this Saturday.
What I’m Looking For & Game Prediction
I need to see something from the Badgers today. And by something, I mean life, a spark, some fight. Going to Tuscaloosa is not going to be easy, but I think we can all agree this is not the same Alabama team that came to Wisconsin last season and put a whooping on the Badgers.
I think we can also agree that, although it’s a small sample size of just two games, this Wisconsin team looks better than last season. And I’m not just talking about talent. They seem to have more fight and energy than last season, at least defensively.
The run defense is vastly improved from a season ago, and the linebacking corps is solid, even from a pessimist’s point of view. The unit has allowed just one touchdown all season. I don’t think they’ll shut down the Alabama offense completely, but I wouldn’t be surprised if they kept them to less than 30 points.
The offense is what I’m watching for. How will Grimes get the running game going? How will the offensive line, which has been the Achilles heel of the team all season, hold up against an SEC defense loaded with future NFL players?
Danny O’Neil looked great against Middle Tennessee, throwing for 283 yards and three touchdowns. Can he come even close to that against Alabama? How will he perform under duress? I think the pass protection held up well last week, but this isn’t the Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders you are playing. If he can have a clean game and avoid turnovers, I think the Badgers can keep this thing close.
I’m not one for moral victories. Wins are wins and losses are losses. But if the Badgers leave Tuscaloosa and keep the game within two touchdowns, I’ll feel a lot better heading into the rest of the season.
My concern is the offensive line. Hopefully, with another week of practicing together, and if starting center Jake Renfro returns, this unit will play better than it has. But, until I see it, I continue to believe this unit will be the downfall of the season. I’d expect Alabama to send pressure (if they don’t get it from rushing three or four players) to make sure they can keep the Wisconsin offense from playing in a rhythm.
I think this game is closer than people think it will be, but I still have Alabama winning at home, sending Fickell to 0-7 against ranked teams while at Wisconsin. But Wisconsin covers.
Wisconsin 17 - Alabama 23
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