The Badger Backer

The Badger Backer

Ceiling vs. Floor: Predicting the Chaos of Wisconsin’s Final Month

Predicting the ceiling and floor in the final stretch of the Wisconsin basketball regular season. Can the Badgers sneak into the top 4 and clinch a double-bye?

Feb 04, 2026
∙ Paid
Photo via UW Athletics

February in the Big Ten is where efficiency meets reality. After a scorching 7-1 run through January that saw the Wisconsin basketball team climb to 16-6 (8-3 B1G), Greg Gard’s squad finds itself at a crossroads.

With a schedule that features five Quad-1 road tests in its final nine games, the math is simple, but the execution is anything but.

To give a bit of a preview of the final nine games, I wanted to go over a best-case scenario and, inversely, a worst-case scenario for the Badgers’ final run to postseason play.

I also dipped into the AI world, running a simulation of the final nine games of the season to see where the Badgers would end up.

Here is the breakdown of the best, worst, and most likely finishes for the rollercoaster that is the Wisconsin basketball team.

🏆 The Ceiling: The “Double-Bye” Dream

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