"What If" Series — Ch. 9: What if Tyler Herro Never Decommitted?
Exploring the alternate reality where the hometown star honored his commitment and played for Greg Gard.
Wisconsin sports fans are no strangers to the painful sting of elite homegrown talent leaving the state. But while many stars slip away during the high school recruiting cycle, few departures left a deeper, more enduring scar than Tyler Herro’s exit from the Wisconsin basketball program.
Long broken down into a singular moment of heartbreak, Herro was the crown jewel of Greg Gard’s 2018 recruiting class.
Let’s travel back to October 2017. Herro had been a committed Badger for over a year. He was the homegrown stud from Whitnall High School and a ruthless, smooth-scoring wing destined to modernize Wisconsin’s swing offense. Then, John Calipari came calling, and everything changed in an instant. Herro famously flipped his commitment to Kentucky.
Badger fans were left devastated and angry, left to watch Herro excel in Lexington and eventually the NBA while wondering how different the program’s modern era would look if he had just stayed home.
So, let’s pull the lever on the simulation:
What if Tyler Herro ignores Kentucky, honors his word, and signs his National Letter of Intent with the Wisconsin Badgers?
The 2018–2019 Simulation: Happ’s Perfect Complement
If Herro arrives in Madison for the 2018–19 season, he walks into a locker room anchored by an All-American big man in Ethan Happ, a premier glue guy in Brad Davison, and a steady floor general in D’Mitrik Trice.
To understand how high this team’s ceiling becomes, let’s look at the stark contrast between the two timelines for the 2018–19 season:
Our Reality:
Offensive Identity: Predictable and hyper-reliant on Ethan Happ in the low post.
NCAA Tournament Seed: 4-Seed
March Madness Result: Blown out 72-54 by a 12-seeded Oregon team in the Round of 64.
The Herro Timeline:
Offensive Identity: A dynamic inside-out pairing with elite floor spacing.
NCAA Tournament Seed: 2-Seed
March Madness Result: An Elite Eight run, culminating in an epic schematic clash with Virginia.
In our reality, opponents realized they could completely ignore Wisconsin’s perimeter shooters and throw relentless double- and triple-teams at Happ. In the 2018-19 season, the Badgers shot just 36% from 3-point range on 19.8 attempts per game. The offense became agonizingly stagnant.
In the Herro timeline, the entire equation changes. With Herro patrolling the wing, sagging off a Wisconsin guard becomes dynamic suicide. Happ, one of the better passing big men in the Big Ten, suddenly has a lethal, high-volume spacer who can score off the bounce or split defenses on the catch.
When March arrives, the dreaded Oregon matchup never happens because Wisconsin enters the tournament as a dangerous 2-seed. Instead of a first-round exit, Herro carries the Badgers deep into the second weekend, bowing out in a classic, low-possession Elite Eight battle against eventual national champion Virginia.
The 2019–2020 Blueprint: The Undisputed Big Ten Kings
As a sophomore, Herro takes the mantle as the undisputed alpha of the program following Happ’s graduation.
In our reality, the 2019–20 Badgers caught lightning in a bottle. Despite a turbulent mid-season stretch that saw Kobe King leave the program, a veteran group rallied to win eight straight games and secure a shocking share of the Big Ten Regular Season Championship.
In the Herro simulation, there is no mid-season identity crisis. Wisconsin doesn’t just backdoor its way into a co-championship; they utterly dominate the conference. Herro averages over 20 points per game, capturing Big Ten Player of the Year honors. Alongside Trice, Davison, and a developing Nate Reuvers, the Badgers track cleanly toward a top seed in the NCAA Tournament before the COVID-19 pandemic abruptly cancels March Madness.
Following the shortened season, Herro declares for the NBA Draft as a potential top-10 pick, leaving Madison as an iconic homegrown talent who elevated the program to its absolute ceiling.
A stable floor keeps the Badgers competitive, but can a traditional identity survive the modern Big Ten? Upgrade to a paid subscription below to unlock the full simulation of the Herro era, including his recruiting limitations, the fate of Greg Gard, and where the program would stand today.
